New Movers Drive Florida’s Market Trends (Part 2)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Between 2020 and 2022, Florida saw an influx of new residents aged 24 to 55, with more than 175,000 of these prime-age workers relocating to the state. Topping the list of popular locations to move include the Panama City, Crestview, Jacksonville, Miami and Palm Bay areas.  

What kind of impacts do these newcomers have on the local market? In part two of this series, we’ll combine national data with Florida Realtor® housing statistics to assess their influence on housing prices.

Setting up the deeper dive

We commingled the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) data with Florida Realtors housing statistics to assess how mover income impacted the markets they entered.

First, we looked at the average income of people between the ages of 25 to 54 (in their prime working years) who moved to Florida from another state between 2020-2022 and tagged them “movers”. Then we looked at the income of all people who have stayed in that area during the same time, tagging them “stayers.” By including all ages in the stayers group, we account for people living in Florida who are retired. We also focused on all sources of revenue, not just earned income, to account for the passive income that comprises a greater share of a retiree’s finances.

The ratio of average incomes between these two groups measures the relative income difference between movers to stayers. Markets where the ratio is greater than 1.0 are those where movers had a greater income than stayers. In markets with a ratio of less than one, the stayers had a greater income.

 Prime-Age Movers vs. All-Age Stayers 18+, All Income (not earned only), excludes intrastate moves 

Charting housing appreciation & income

The chart above shows the relationship between home appreciation and the relative incomes of prime-age movers to all non-movers (do you mean stayers?) in Florida metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) between 2020 and 2022. The vertical axis shows the change in median sale price in each metro area over this period, and the horizontal axis shows the ratio in average incomes between movers and stayers.

The chart reveals that metros in the top right quadrant, including Port St. Lucie, Tampa, and Northport, experienced a higher percent change of median sale price (over 35%) and had a mover-to-stayer income ratio above 1.0. These areas saw higher-income movers who likely drove significant price appreciation. Given that around 45% of these prime-age newcomers own homes, their high homeownership rate is a key factor in the rising median sale prices.

Metro areas with larger dots indicate a larger median sale price, like Naples and Key West micropolitan area (which includes all of Monroe County), whereas those with smaller dots like Orlando and Daytona are a little lower on the scale. Yellow and light green dots indicate the mover’s average income being approximately $70,000 or above, with darker green and blue indicating an average income of $60,000 and lower.

Of course people from within Florida moved as well and may have also contributed to price appreciation, simply from equity gains during this time. However, for this analysis we are mainly focusing on people coming into Florida from other states and their likely contribution to price appreciation, all while knowing intrastate migration contributed as well.

In the last part of this three-part series, we will offer analysis of these trends and important findings.  

Jennifer Warner is an economist and the Florida Realtors Director of Economic Development.

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