In-Migration Impact on Local Markets (Part 1)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida’s median sale price climbed significantly between 2020 and 2022, with some markets exceeding a 50% increase. While price growth has slowed significantly over the last 18 months or so, homes so far have held on to these higher values. For owners already in these markets, this price appreciation (and potential gains in equity) was somewhat welcome, even though it often comes with a higher property tax bill. More money, more problems.

It does beg the question – where is all this money coming from to support these higher prices? From a monthly payment perspective, higher sales prices were largely offset by savings from lower interest rates through mid-2022. What has really sustained higher prices over the long run, however, is the impact of younger and, in many cases, wealthy, people moving into Florida.

In this three-part series, Florida Realtors® will release information that takes a deep dive into the movers and stayers to explain this market phenomenon.

Analysis of movers

Looking at data from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS), focusing on net migration into Florida by age group over time, tells a lot about the uniqueness of the 2020-2022 time period. Before we start, note that this data only reflects domestic migration, meaning it only represents people moving between Florida and the other states in the U.S. We exclude net foreign migration because this Census survey does not capture the number of people who moved from Florida to foreign destinations. Also, be aware that data from 2020 are missing from this data set due to survey response issues, but we can still learn a lot about this time period from the 2021 and 2022 data.

Start with the chart below, which shows migration numbers to and from Florida, focusing on the 65+ age group. The positive blue bar indicates in-migration, the green negative bar indicates out-migration, and the red dot indicates net migration. This tracks with Florida’s historical story, which is that retirees love to move to Florida to enjoy their golden years here. We typically see more in-migration of this group with a smaller amount of out-migration, though that has ticked up slightly from historic norms during this 2020-2022 time period. From 2012-2019, Florida saw about 51,000 people leave, whereas in 2021-2022 approximately 67,000 people left. Still, overall net migration stayed on trend, with more people moving in at that time to offset those who left, but it is notable that out-migration was slightly higher as Florida’s economy began to change.

Retirees (65+)

Looking at another age group, people in their prime working ages, from 24 to 55, have always been major movers into and out of Florida. Yet, despite this level of mobility, the net effect of this age group on Florida’s population growth has historically been rather nominal, with departures canceling out a large share of the arrivals. Looking at a similar chart for this age group, Florida averaged a net increase of about 33,000 people per year from 2012-2019. Everything changed in 2021 and 2022 when a significant shift occurred, and about 175,000 prime working-age individuals migrated to the state. That is an average of 87,000 people per year. Compared to the historic average from 2012-2019 of 33,000, this marked a significant uptick.

The reasons for this shift are myriad and include the telecommuting revolution that allowed people to work from anywhere because of the pandemic. Prime working-age people were among the main beneficiaries of this trend, particularly for those working in industries that allowed an easy transition to remote work. With established careers and reputations at their current employers, the stretch to log into a Zoom call from a beach house wasn’t as much as for a younger person just starting out.  Florida was also a prime beneficiary for migration due to relatively low housing costs, lack of a state income tax and overall better climate for those looking to avoid the issues stemming from living in tight urban areas.  

Prime Working Age (25-54)

Next, we broke these migration numbers down a little further by metropolitan statistical area (MSA) to see where the highest concentrations of these working age people ended up.

Two metros in Northwest Florida, the Panama City and Crestview areas, emerged as the highest percentage of net in-migration of prime-age individuals. This speaks to the allure of the affluent pockets of the state that attracted people who were able to telecommute to their jobs but live anywhere else. For example, Alys Beach in Walton County is nestled in this area and has been a hot spot of high-end development over the last several years. Much of this development is targeting younger people and seems to have found its niche among the untethered worker.

The next three on the list, the Jacksonville, Miami and Palm Bay areas, are the more traditional employment hubs, which implies that people may have been bringing their jobs with them, or companies in Florida were able to attract talent into the state. Florida’s economy has been steadily diversifying for years, but now seemed more attractive to people who were considering quality of life. The Miami area particularly made news as corporate relocations among financial and tech firms during this time implied a more long-term strategy than just a temporary move to outmaneuver a virus.

In part 2, we will dive further into the ACS data and look at the impact of movers at the metro level, examining both the incomes of movers and stayers, along with home price growth.

Jennifer Warner is an economist and the Florida Realtors Director of Economic Development.

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