Florida Consumer Sentiment Outpaces Nation

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer sentiment among Floridians declined for the third consecutive month, dropping 1.8 points in April to 77 from a revised figure of 78.8 in March. This decline was smaller than the 4.8-point drop observed in national sentiment.

“Consumer sentiment in Florida has been on a downward trend over the past three months, largely driven by declines in Floridians’ expectations about future economic conditions,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “These expectations have been steadily decreasing since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing uncertainty about the economy. Among the contributing factors are ongoing concerns about the potential impact of tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions.”

Among the five components that make up the index, one increased and four decreased.

Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions were mixed. Opinions of personal financial situations compared with a year ago increased slightly seven-tenths of a point, from 67.5 to 68.2. These views were shared by most Floridians, except for men and people with an annual income over $50,000, who reported more negative views. In contrast, opinions on whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as cars or furniture, decreased slightly eight-tenths of a point, from 69.2 to 68.4. These views were split across demographics, with women and people younger than 60 expressing more favorable opinions, while people with an annual income under $50,000 reported no change.

Floridians’ views of future economic conditions worsened in April, signaling a pessimistic outlook ahead as all three components declined. Expectations of personal financial situations a year from now saw the steepest decline, dropping four points from 92.7 to 88.7. Outlooks of U.S. economic conditions over the next year decreased 3.5 points from 81.6 to 78.1. Additionally, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years fell 1.4 points from 83.1 to 81.7. Notably, these downward trends were observed across all sociodemographic groups, except for the latter component, where women and people ages 60 and older reported more positive economic expectations for the national economy over the next five years.

In April, new tariffs on imported goods from U.S. trading partners were announced but later postponed. However, tariffs on goods from China remained in place, triggering retaliation.

“The imposition of these tariffs, along with the reversal of some decisions, has increased economic uncertainty, particularly regarding trade policy. This uncertainty surrounding has made Floridians uneasy, as reflected in this month’s consumer sentiment reading, particularly in their expectations about future economic conditions,” Sandoval said.

“Despite the substantial increase in economic uncertainty in April, the decline in sentiment was notably smaller than those observed in February and March. A similar trend was observed at the national level, suggesting that there may be no more substantial declines in sentiment in the near future. Looking ahead, future measures of consumer sentiment will help assess whether the declines have slowed, indicating a potential stabilization in sentiment,” Sandoval added.

Conducted March 1 to April 24, the UF study reflects the responses of 324 individuals who were reached on cellphones and 267 individuals reached through an online panel, a total of 591 individuals, representing a demographic cross section of Florida. The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a two and the highest is 150.

Source: University of Florida

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