October Annual Home Price Growth Stalled

IRVINE, Calif. — U.S. home price growth remained almost unchanged in October from the previous month, recording 3.4% year-over year-growth and a 0.02% increase from September, the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic found it its Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for October.

The stagnation highlights the fact that home price growth has remained relatively flat since this summer, only eking out gains in certain pockets of the country, the company said.

 The Northeast has proved particularly resilient to current economic conditions despite slower job growth, elevated interest rates, and ongoing affordability concerns. New Jersey, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire claimed three out of the top five spots for year-over-year price gains, rising 8.1%, 7.5%, and 6.3%, respectively. Rhode Island and New Jersey prices reached new highs in October.

Meanwhile, Washington D.C., Idaho and Montana top the list this month for the states that are furthest from their price peaks. Each location was down from its former high point by -3.5%, -2.5%, -2.1%, respectively. However, on a year-over-year basis, Washington D.C. prices are still up 4.7%. Hawaii was the only state to post an annual home price decline. 

Despite the price declines seen in certain areas of the country, overall national price growth is expected to continue at a muted pace. Still, forecasts suggest that national single-family home prices will reach a new peak level in April 2025. Currently, the median sales price for all single-family homes in the U.S. is $385,000. 

“Similar to much of the housing market activity, home prices continued to mostly move sideways in October,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “A slight home price bump after a late summer decline reflects the rebound in home buying demand resulting from a short but effective decline in mortgage rates in August. Still, as we continue to bump along during this slower time of the year for the housing market, home prices are not expected to reveal much about what’s ahead for the spring home buying market. In the last few years though, springtime has seen home prices jump higher than before the pandemic despite elevated mortgage rates.”

On a metro level, Chicago posted the highest gain at 6.4% growth year over year. This Midwestern city was followed by Miami (+6.2%) and Las Vegas (+5.6%). Of the metros flagged by CoreLogic’s Market Risk Indicator (MRI) for being at risk for a market price decline, Provo-Orem, Utah, took the lead with a 70%-plus probability for decline in the next 12 months. Salt Lake City, Utah; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Rowsell, Georgia; Tucson, Arizona; and Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, Florida also indicated a very high risk of declines in home prices over year.

Top takeaways:

• U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 3.4% year over year in October 2024 compared with October 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased just 0.02% from September 2024.
• CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 2.4% by October 2025.
• Chicago posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country's 10 highlighted metro areas in October, at 6.4%. Miami saw the next-highest gain at 6.2%.
• Among states, New Jersey ranked first for annual appreciation in October (up by 8.1%), followed by Rhode Island (up by 7.5%). Hawaii was the only state to record a year-over-year home price loss.

Source: CoreLogic

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