NOAA Revises Hurricane Season Forecast

WASHINGTON – In a revised forecast issued Thursday, the federal government continued to call for an "extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season, one that could rank among the busiest on record.

The updated seasonal outlook now calls for 17-24 named storms to form, of which eight to 13 will spin up into hurricanes. Those numbers include the four storms that have already formed this year, such as deadly and devastating Hurricane Beryl and the last system that menaced the East Coast, Debby.

An average year sees 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there's a 90% chance of an above-average season, which is among the highest chances ever issued by the agency, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans told USA Today.

"We're continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season," said Rosencrans. "Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Niña is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now."

There's only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season, he said. If predictions hold true, 2024 would be a record ninth consecutive year with above-normal activity.

"The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record," said NOAA head Rick Spinrad in a statement. "NOAA's update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur."

Forecasters continue to await the official arrival of La Niña, the natural climate pattern that's marked by cooler-than-average sea water in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It has been predicted to form for several months now, and the reason for its delay isn't entirely clear, said NOAA's Michelle L'Heureux.

La Nina tends to increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic, so its arrival is a key ingredient in how active the season is.

However, the Climate Prediction Center Thursday said that while it's been delayed slightly, there is a 66% chance that the La Niña pattern will emerge sometime during September to November. That's likely still in time for much of the second half of the hurricane season, Rosencrans said.

Colorado State University (CSU), which pioneered hurricane season forecasts, updated its forecast, too – slightly dialing back its predictions for the season compared with what it said earlier this year.

The forecasting team, led by meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, now predicts 23 named storms will form, down from 25, with 12 becoming hurricanes.

However, CSU predicts six major hurricanes will form – one more than it forecast in April. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity.

"We have maintained our forecast for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024," CSU said in an online statement released this week.

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